Through Intermediaries, Armenian Premier Is Asking Azerbaijan For Truce

Farid Hajili Analysis 18 October 2020
Through Intermediaries, Armenian Premier Is Asking Azerbaijan For Truce

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is losing both the war in Azerbaijan’s separatist Karabakh and his post. This is a foregone conclusion and anticipating his ruin, the Armenian prime minister s through intermediaries has asked for contacts with the president of Azerbaijan. The Armenian government is sending signals about its readiness for a dialogue with Azerbaijan on Baku’s terms for the Karabakh settlement.

The Armenian army’s shattering defeat in Fuzuli has expedited the defeat that will go down in history of the second Karabakh war as a turning point in the 30-year-old Armenian-Azerbaijani faceoff.

“The Fuzuli operation is quite symbolic. Azerbaijan has regained its historical and ancient settlement and ensured the return of tens of thousands of people to these places. At the same time, from a strategic point of view, the splitting of several lines of defense on the line of contact with Fuzuli gives us another strategic advantage. Because our armed forces located in the direction of Fuzuli have been fighting there these days.

Of course, it is not a secret now where we were able to enter Fuzuli from. As a result of tremendous military professionalism and courage, we were able to liberate Fuzuli from the occupiers. Before that, the city of Jabrayil was liberated from the invaders. Before that, Hadrut was liberated from the occupiers. Many villages of Khojavand and Jabrayil districts, including Fuzuli district, were liberated from occupation. Only after that were we able to liberate the city of Fuzuli from the occupiers,” the Azerbaijani president said on October 17.

Experts are of the opinion that it was one of the most merciless wars of our time. Armed with weapons of the Soviet and Russian military industry and deprived of any enthusiasm and motivation to fight for the territories under occupation, the occupying Armenian army is doomed to lose under precision strikes of the fearless, disciplined, well-structured and well-coordinated army of the Azerbaijani army, equipped with high-tech weapons of the 21st century.

Azerbaijan’s XXI century army

The fearless and courageous soldiers smashed to smithereens the false and unjust stereotype imposed on Azerbaijanis since the turbulent and tornadic 1990s. The army proved it is able of fighting. Gripped by unbridled chaos, torn apart by internal quarrelsome passions for power struggle, Azerbaijan lost the first Karabakh war but managed to stand on own two feet and mobilized national spirit and unity to quash the enemy.

Azerbaijan’s national leader Heydar Aliyev did not manage to finish the mission he had begun. However, the consolidated political elite supported the people's choice - a young, European-minded politician and statesman, the successor to the founder of the third Azerbaijan Republic Ilham Aliyev came to power.

The philosophy of political continuity put forward by Heydar Aliyev confirmed the viability of a successful model that could give impetus to the development of post-Soviet society, that is, predictability of political power and social development. Thanks to the rapid growth of the Azerbaijani economy, primarily due to a multi-vector energy policy, Ilham Aliyev identified the dominant idea of the national agenda - the return of Karabakh and the restoration of the country's integrity.

Karabakh has become the foundation of the new ideological platform of the government. Karabakh is a cornerstone in the national system of values. Ilham Aliyev became the most uncompromising and strong-willed Azerbaijani politician on the Karabakh settlement. Not an inch of land! This slogan sounded in the mouth of the president for about seventeen years. Expressing the aspirations and mentality of the whole society, Ilham Aliyev realized that for the revival of the national spirit and the implementation of further development strategy, the country must restore its integrity.

The Kazan meeting dissuades president

It was most likely the Kazan summit that finally dissuaded the president of Azerbaijan that aggressor Armenia will not agree on compromises. The provincial political upstarts demanded from Azerbaijan unconditional surrender. “Peace in exchange for territory” - this concept of clever and wise Israeli diplomacy turned out to be alien to the short-sighted and stupid Stepanakert boys in order to recognize all the dangers for them of the fertile geopolitical configuration built by Aliyev for a decisive breakthrough.

In their political planning and forecasting, the narrow-minded Karabakh clique of Kocharyan and Sargsyan, and then the dilettante Pashinyan, who grabbed hold of the power, together with the "Soros boys", together a priori, excluded a military option for the development of the situation. Armenian politicians believed in what they themselves wanted to believe.

Armenians and their supporters did not believe that Ilham Aliyev would not risk a multi-billion dollar investment climate, oil and gas industry and the established statehood for the sake of a difficult-to-predict military campaign. In addition, even the transformation of the world order with its prerogative of the “right to force” did not return the narcissistic Pashinyan's power, which had lost its sense of reality, to a cruel reality.

The world has changed, and with it, all the main regulators of the Helsinki system of stability were knocked out of the world system of relations. In addition, international law - atavism of the Cold War era - went into oblivion along with bipolarism. Therefore, after all, both international law and the new world order were in favor of the strengthened Azerbaijan.

Ilham Aliyev did what he had to do. A politician of this magnitude could not miss this historic chance. Azerbaijan, and even Ilham Aliyev himself, might not have had a second chance. So, the battle for the city of Fuzuli, the citadel of the plain Karabakh, has become a turning point, a new starting point in the second Karabakh war.

The Azerbaijani army crushed the last resistance of the occupying army and launched a large-scale offensive. Everywhere, in all trenches, Armenian soldiers are raising white flags. Forged in fierce battles in the first days of the war, Azerbaijan’s military units easily take up combat positions, villages, and fortified areas. A situation has arisen in which the Azerbaijani authorities can barely keep up with the successes of the brave army that rebelled on the battlefields.

What is next?!

In his 17 October speech, President Ilham Aliyev outlined the main goal for the entire Azerbaijani world: the shrine - the city of Susa. Prior to the occupation, the primordial Azerbaijani city founded by Panah Khan was the main focus of Azerbaijani folklore and culture. In addition, the chroniclers are a thousand times right in their assertion, asserting that in the national consciousness of Azerbaijanis Susa prevails over Baku. This city is the spiritual capital of Azerbaijan.

There is no doubt that in the coming days the Azerbaijani army will occupy the city of Susa, fulfilling the dream of several generations who glorified love and separation from spirituality, and even with a lost dream. In any case, for almost 30 years, Susa has become a sweet mirage for every Azerbaijani.

What is Armenia capable of opposing in the coming days in order to stop the victorious march of the Azerbaijani troops?! In a trembling voice, the official representative of the Armenian Defense Ministry expressed all his grief and despondency today, reproaching the youth of Yerevan for desertion. He believes that by wastingly waving flags in the rear, the youth is bringing Azerbaijan's victory closer.

After all, the revolution of love completely changed the state structure in the country of warlords. Armenia, which chose the path of the so-called "people's street democracy", abandoned the political mobilization system. Armenia has returned to the era of the seething voluptuous Theater Square with the delusional idea of "miatsum". This idea, just like in the 1990s, is supported by a rusty antediluvian Kalashnikov assault rifle, which is aimed at ghost drones.

Suddenly Armenia woke up and realized that the time machine had carried Azerbaijan far ahead. In addition, a sneaky terrorist shot from around the corner will not save the smouldering organism of the Karabakh separatism.
Nikol Pashinyan, with his air of freedom, is quite difficult to build a violent recruitment with the use of retreat-blocking detachments. It was this scheme of forcible coercion into the war in Karabakh, which was actively used in the early 1990s by the then Armenia Defense Minister Vazgen Sargsyan.

In this war, the Armenian generals pinned great hopes on the defense in depth in the fortified areas on the line of contact and in the plains of Karabakh, believing that the Azerbaijani troops would get bogged down in battles with these echelons and the active offensive would drown. However, the unprecedented courage and fearlessness of the Azerbaijani soldier broke the plans of Gen Tonoyan, just as they tore the notorious "Gen Ohanyan's defense line" to shreds in April 2016.

The Armenian army is doomed. The current government of Armenia will not be able to unleash a partisan war. The absolute majority of the Armenian population fled to Yerevan. In addition, the entire military infrastructure in Karabakh has been completely destroyed. Now Armenia must oppose Azerbaijan’s well-trained regular army.

Poorly organized and weakly armed battalions remained on the limitless and extended front line. Arms supplies are running out. All countries bordering Armenia, including Iran, have closed their airspaces for the transportation of weapons. Moreover, the Armenian economy, crushed by the coronavirus crisis and internal oligarchic wars, is on the wane.