The War Won’t Only Be In Karabakh But To Cover Territories Of Armenia & Azerbaijan - Pundit

Farid Hajili Analysis 7 May 2020
The War Won’t Only Be In Karabakh But To Cover Territories Of Armenia & Azerbaijan - Pundit

Armenia has been skilfully maneuvering around the bogus Karabakh solution scheme mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group. Whenever the process, underway since 1994 through under the Minsk Group mediation, overcomes obstacles and manages to channel efforts into a possible outcome, official Yerevan re-launches artificial infighting and overthrowing of the government.

They never forget to raise a big hue to portray developments as the national dissatisfaction with a sitting government’s Karabakh policies. Here are what former officials think of the current government.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will personally be responsible for agreeing to a phased plan to resolve the Karabakh conflict and stealing from the budget, Mikael Minasyan, former Armenian ambassador to the Vatican and ex-president Serzh Sargsyan’s son-in-law, wrote on his Facebook page.

"Take into account that you, Nikol Pashinyan, is personally responsible for agreeing to a phased plan in secret negotiations on Karabakh and preliminary consent to return the liberated lands to Azerbaijan in exchange for holding power," Minasyan wrote.

Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan’s latest contradictory Karabakh statements should be viewed from Yerevan’s policy of dragging out the process as long as possible.

For over two years already, the Pashinyan government has been avoiding normal talks, winning time under various pretexts. The Armenian foreign minister’s latest statement essentially means the refusal of official Yerevan from the Madrid principles, the basis for the negotiations and a stage-by-stage process, and, in general, from the Minsk process.

Edmon Marukyan of Armenia’s opposition Bright Armenia party following discussions with Mnatsakanyan and Pashinyan said all fears about "some kind of land transfer" to Azerbaijan were dispelled. The parliamentarian said that he does not have any concern about the position of Armenia in the negotiations. Now the point is why Azerbaijan must waster time for the sake of empty talks provided that official Yerevan has already made up its mind about the occupied Azerbaijani lands and political forces on both sides of the aisle see eye to eye.

Azerbaijan’s ex-foreign minister Tofiq Zulfuqarov says the Minsk process was kicked off after Armenia’s occupation of Susa and Lacin districts and it was then decided to hold talks on the de-occupation.

Now Armenians cast doubts on the status at the Minsk Conference and want to bring this issue to the forefront. Actually, they are abandoning the basis for the mediation laid out by the OSCE. What does this mean? When you begin to explain all these subtleties, usually ordinary people say: they say, what else to discuss with them? We need to fight; there is no sense in negotiations. And this is an absolutely correct point. However, in order to come to such conclusions and analysis, it is necessary to understand what points Armenian propaganda strikes.

In this case, Mnatsakanyan’s latest statement boils down to the following: the Minsk process, its logic is killed. The Armenians declare their position, and if we continue the negotiations, in fact, we accept this agenda, the pundit opined.

They also say that one thing is good - the co-chairs declare a phased settlement, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke about this. However, the fact is that here one also needs to deal with the basis of the UN Security Council resolution: this structure is the only organization, the most important one, making an imperative and binding decision.

All other international organizations, roughly speaking, are subordinates of the UN and only the UN can give them any functions. One such regional organization is the OSCE. Nevertheless, unlike the UN, the OSCE cannot force the aggressor to peace. That is, it creates the conditions for negotiations, can take steps to prevent conflict. They cannot force Yerevan to liberate Azerbaijan’s occupied territories.

Based on the foregoing, the co-chairs voiced this, and now one of the parties, that is, Armenia, has stated its position in this way. In addition, the co-chairs will look for the middle ground. In addition, if Armenia insists on this position, then everyone will simply say this is the situation, and let's discuss what we can discuss.

If Azerbaijan agrees to this agenda, it will mean that we are ready to discuss any issues, including those that were idle, that is, including questions about our territorial integrity. That is the logic of this statement. In this situation, Azerbaijan can manifest itself.

After all, the co-chairs did not say anything that Mnatsakanyan was wrong, or that, as intermediary countries, they would impose sanctions against Armenia. They do not sound such opinions. Based on the foregoing, it turns out that, in fact, Sergey Lavrov simply voiced a statement, which was the reason for the Armenians to tighten their position. This is the essence of what is happening.

On what prevents Baku from resuming hostilities against the Azerbaijani defense minister’s statement about the intensification of Armenia’s provocations along the front line, the pundit said hopes to resolve the conflict through negotiations have exhausted itself. As a person who spent many years in the negotiations, I will say that even at the beginning of the journey, if there were any illusions, and then they quickly vanished, he added.

A few years ago, we were hindered by the so-called security umbrella that Russia provided to Armenia. Now, de facto, nothing is left of this “umbrella”. Moreover, the military-political and military-strategic balance of forces has radically changed in Azerbaijan’s favor. The balance of forces has altered with the strengthening of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, the demographic situation, the economic opportunities of Azerbaijan. From the point of view of the new situation, it is worth noting the Naxcivan factor, from the border of which there are more than 40 kilometers to Yerevan and this is within reach of Grad type multiple launch rocket systems, Zulfuqarov added.

Moreover, now the nature of the conflict itself has changed, he said, adding that this is recognized by the international community. For two decades, this conflict is seen as a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. That is, an armed conflict will occur between the two countries, and not, as it was called under the USSR, a “hot spot”. Therefore, one must proceed from new realities. One needs to see the whole picture and in this holistic picture, I see that even Armenia is preparing for war.

They want to use the prospects of this war in a different way - their political elite either wants to do something to our detriment - and if it does not work out and they lose the war, they will blame their ally in the person of Russia and near the West. The Pashinyan elite in this particular case fulfill its minimum program and this has been spoken many times about.

Public opinion is a very strong element that supports any decision of the executive branch. Armenia is manipulating public opinion to reinforce all their actions, radical slogans, and radical position.

As for the statement of the Azerbaijani defense minister, the pundit claims Armenians purposefully carry out a radical line. Armenia has conducted ethnic cleansing in the occupied Azerbaijani lands and under the Constitution, the defense minister and other government members are obliged to fulfill their functions, that is, to protect the interests of their citizens.

It is very relevant for everyone to introduce into the Azerbaijani society the feeling that war is inevitable. Moreover, all the components of society - propaganda, economics, healthcare - should be prepared for this, because the war will not only be in Karabakh, it will cover the entire territory of two countries - Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Therefore, concepts such as civil defense, mobilization measures, all this should be appropriately involved. The pundit also believes that the pandemic has greatly weakened Armenia. 

“When we had domestic political problems, they occupied our territories and carried out ethnic cleansing. If we conduct military operations, this will occur within the framework of the provision of our constitution and the UN Charter. In this context, I consider any of our actions aimed at restoring sovereignty and territorial integrity to be absolutely adequate,” he said.

The Armenian defense minister arrives at Azerbaijan’s occupied territories, conducts inspections of the troops? Is this not direct evidence of aggression? On possible international reactions to the likely resumption of the hostilities, the former foreign minister advises to be driven by own right to the restoration of the occupied lands.

Political instruments, one of which is negotiations, have exhausted themselves, and have shown that it was not possible to curb the aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan by such means. In addition, in accordance with this, other methods must be used, because the aggressor is always repulsed. One needs to understand that political means - negotiations and mediation - have failed. Was it impossible to understand this in 30 years? Moreover, there is no need to indulge in illusions to this end, he added.

Armenia is building a “completely new foreign policy concept”, demonstrating its “viability”, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told the parliament.
According to him, Armenia no longer intends to put up with the status of a third-rate country and will position itself as a state with whose opinions should be reckoned with, he added.

According to him, the government respects its foreign partners and demands the same from other sides. At the same time, the prime minister pointed out certain risks emanating from the stated position, however, according to him, he and his team have already made a choice and will continue to be guided by this principle.

“We must decide whether we want to cover our heads with our hands so that we won’t be beaten, or, if necessary, receive an assault and strike back. Naturally, we are building constructive and non-conflict relations, but I chose the second option and cannot imagine otherwise. Everything else is the details,” Pashinyan said importantly.