With The Killing Of Iran’s Top General, Will The US Prevent Deadly Strikes?

Fuad Muxtarlı Analysis 13 January 2020
With The Killing Of Iran’s Top General, Will The US Prevent Deadly Strikes?

The killing of the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, Maj-Gen Qasem Soleimani, will take a heavy toll on Tehran’s ambitious plans to undermine stability in the Middle East and wider region to dictate own rules.

Qasem Soleimani wielded immense power and influence in his position and was crucial as the architect who spread and maintained Iran’s influence in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere in the region through acts of terrorism.

In the wake of the killing of the most famous general, second to Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Tehran regime got a slap on the wrist not a crucial blow yet. Most pundits believe this is just a warning fire for Iran that its further plans and plots to this end would be severely opposed and would make it regret and be aware of unproportioned opportunities for a war of influence in the region

Qasem Soleimani’s killing was pivotal for the US administration for many reasons. In Washington, they wanted to test the waters and see if Tehran was ready to play own games or not. And it emerged that by firing two dozens of missiles to targets in Iraq, emptied in advance, Iran was not absolutely after a revenge for the killing of its top level general.

This resolute move of the Trump administration is also an indication of its determination to corner Iran in any part of the globe where the regime wants to be active. At the same time, the United States has essentially changed the military-political situation in the region and heated it up to the limit.

Over the past few years, Soleimani had become a real symbol of the resistance of individual armed groups fighting against ISIS on the one hand, against the US-Israel alliance in the region on the other. He practically oversaw such formidable organizations and their activities throughout the Middle East as Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas and others, which turned into a headache for Israel - the main US regional ally. 

After the outbreak of the wars in Syria and Iraq, Qassem Soleimani was seconded to these countries, where Iran has powerful strongholds in the face of the Shiite population and its politicized part. As a result, due to the still incomprehensible policy of Washington in these countries, Iran significantly, and under the close supervision of the US military, strengthened its position and managed to defend Assad in Syria and brought the Shiite political coalition to power in Iraq.

Having significantly expanded its possibilities for political manoeuvres, Iran, once driven into a dead end, began to form the Iraqi government obedient to Tehran. After the government in Baghdad was purged from Sunnis and Kurds, Tehran almost established its power in Iraq under U.S. control.

On the one hand, Washington has left the Iran nuclear deal – JCPOA – designed to curb the Iranian nuclear program, and applied the toughest economic sanctions against it and over recent years it almost paralyzed the Iranian economy, provoking mass unrest among the population, and on the other hand, Pentagon officers along with Qasem Soleimani tested the combined forces of the Iraqi regular army, the Kurdish forces, the Hashd al-Shabi and Hezbollah forces ahead of large-scale operations against ISIS in Iraq.

At that time, even the appearance of Qasem Soleimani on the media pages next to the US military triggered huge reactions and many wondered how the enemies could unite as part of the military coalition.

Now the United States suddenly decides to eliminate Qasem Soleimani, and this happens after Washington liquidated the head of ISIS Al-Baghdadi in Syria. Declared by the United States an ally in the fight against Islamic State, Iran, after the elimination of the "Islamic state" again turned into a monster?

Now the whole expert community is puzzling over this question: what goal and strategy are the Americans pursuing in the region, having pursued such a confusing and risky policy. So far, observing the events, one can conclude that the United States is strongly interested in the chaos in Iraq and the stability in this country is clearly contrary to their secret regional plans.

Having ceded Iraq to Iran, Syria to the three - Russia-Iran-Turkey - the US is preparing a surprise for all active players in the region. This surprise may be a new civil war in Iraq between Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis, who are therefore unhappy with their position after the fall of the Saddam regime.

If one pays attention, it is clearly seen that some forces are rapidly adding fuel the fire of a new war in Iraq in parallel with Libya. Here the United States, provoking a conflict in Iraq, can divert Turkey’s attention from Libya, lure Russia into an Iraqi trap, which has already been lured into internal conflicts in Syria and Libya, and this confuse all the players, opposing them against each other.

In Libya, the interests of Moscow and Ankara are currently clashing, which in recent years have built good relations and established cooperation in many areas, including in the military. If Putin and Erdogan cannot agree on Libya, then we will have to expect more serious complications of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, North Africa and the Mediterranean basin.