Peaceful Liberation of Karabakh Distant Hope Irrespective Of Dushanbe Outcome

Fuad Muxtarlı Analysis 2 October 2018
Peaceful Liberation of Karabakh Distant Hope Irrespective Of Dushanbe Outcome

A brief conversation between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on the sidelines of the CIS summit in Dushanbe took place at the initiative of the Armenian prime minister, the deputy head of the Foreign Relations Department under the Presidential Administration, Hikmat Haciyev, said.

"We positively perceive this and Azerbaijan is always ready for constructive negotiations and contacts that contribute to the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. This once again demonstrates Azerbaijan's commitment to the negotiation process on the basis of the existing format," Haciyev said

As for the issue of strengthening the ceasefire regime on the contact line between the troops and the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the main reason for the shootings is the illegal presence of the Armenian armed forces in the occupied territories and the continuation of the military occupation, he added.

"The withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces in conformity with the resolutions of the UN Security Council from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan will eliminate the factor of military risk, so there will be no need for a cease-fire, and there will be comprehensive opportunities for a political settlement of the conflict. This will provide sustainable peace, stability and security in the region," Haciyev said

We should recall that after the change of power in Armenia, the head of the new government Pashinyan demanded the Karabakh separatists should be accepted as a party for the resumption of the talks. For 25 years of the negotiations process, Azerbaijan couldn’t return even an inch of its territory and they can only be returned by military means.

In the meantime, experts prefer not to exaggerate the significance of the brief meeting in Dushanbe. Many experts in both Armenia and Azerbaijan drew attention to the fact that a short statement for the press looks artificial as the parties came to this meeting with diametrically opposed statements. Nothing indicated that there could be a turning point, and the negotiations process would begin. Especially if we consider that in Armenia, the difficult internal political situation will be aggravated due to the early parliamentary elections.

The situation in Armenia will become complicated as the former ruling Republican party opposes the elections, and in this situation, a successful negotiation process on the Karabakh settlement is ruled out.

The meeting in Dushanbe is rather a tactical measure, not a strategy, and the situation is rather tense and the likelihood of large-scale military operations remains high. There are certain conditions for the military settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

First, how does this compare with international law? The UN Charter has a whole section devoted to war and peace, which also refers to the conditions of aggression and the occupation of territories. The very fact of the occupation of Azerbaijani territories is recognized by the UN. Second, there are demands for the liberation of territories, then diplomatic and economic sanctions must be taken, and if these sanctions fail to produce results, each country has the right to self-defense. Specifically, in the case of the Karabakh conflict, there are four resolutions of the UN Security Council, which have already determined that there is aggression and occupation of the territories and the unconditional release of these territories is being demanded. After those resolutions, Azerbaijan applied both diplomatic and economic sanctions, but all these measures did not yield any results, therefore, according to the UN Charter, Azerbaijan has the only option left - the right to liberate its territories militarily.

As the practice of 25-year negotiations shows, this has not led to the release of at least an inch of the territories occupied by Armenia. And the recent statements by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that seven districts outside Nagorno-Karabakh are already part of Nagorno-Karabakh.

And all these territories should be part of Armenia in the future? Such statements make senseless hopes and expectations that any kind of success can be achieved through negotiations. Finally, one more thing, Armenia has always had an “umbrella” of defense by Russia and has always stated that it is a member of the CSTO, and therefore, Russia must protect it.

But even here, clarity has been made: none of the CSTO agreements apply to Nagorno-Karabakh or the territory around it, therefore the organization will not be involved in the conflict, as from the point of view of international law these territories belong to Azerbaijan.

Moreover, the CSTO charter states that the organization builds its policy in accordance with the decisions of the UN and the UN Security Council, which means that Armenia violates the statutory documents of the CSTO by occupying Azerbaijani territories. Therefore, I believe that Azerbaijan has very little space left for diplomatic maneuvers. Everything indicates that it is necessary to solve this issue by applying force.

On the other hand, one of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries – the U.S.A. is still idle when it comes to its mission of finding a solution to the Karabakh conflict.

The City of Glendale will host the official unveiling of Artsakh Avenue during a special ceremony and gathering at 9 a.m. on Tuesday, October 2. The public is invited to attend, Armenian website asbarez.com said

The Glendale City Council approved a resolution on June 12, to rename the two blocks of Maryland Avenue between Wilson Avenue and Harvard Street Artsakh Avenue. The Armenian National Committee of American Glendale chapter strongly supported the initiative and its Community Outreach Director Margarita Baghdasaryan spoke during the June 12 City Council meeting, under the report.

“The name Artsakh has a historical and cultural significance to the Armenian-American community and will serve as a wonderful educational opportunity for Glendalians interested in the history of the tepublic of Artsakh and the Artsakh liberation movement. Furthermore, the name change will attract tourists and likely increase foot traffic in the area, making it the lively pedestrian promenade the city has been trying to create,” said Baghdasaryan